Bankruptcy Index

17 02 2010

In the spirit of the highly successful University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators, I decided to start work on an Oregon Bankruptcy Index.

The goal of this index would be to provide a summary of the vast available economic data as it pertains to bankruptcy filing and bankruptcy risk in Oregon.

The method behind this index might gauge unemployment levels, interest rates, business loans, and other economic criteria.  The data I review and include will depend highly on how my econometric analysis from earlier posts turns out.  Data with a large correlation would be prime for more research and possible addition into the index.  A solid index of numbers might then allow for prediction of future bankruptcy filings.

The obvious benefit of this index could be for real estate companies, banks and investors.  The index might help gauge economic and legal/litigation risk levels.  After the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005, bankruptcies went down significantly only to rise up slowly towards the current economic downturn.  Bankruptcy lawyers have learned the law and are now better at getting their clients though the new regulations with five years of experience against the 2005 legal changes.  The index might be able to include and factor in such changes in the regulatory environment.

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